Keynote Speech by PM Fuad Siniora
Keynote Speech by PM Fuad Siniora
Abu-Dhabi January 13, 2015
UAE Energy Forum: Outlook for the Arab World in the 4thAnniversary of the Arab Spring
It has turned out to be a long, painful, and volatile transition.
Never, in the history of our region since the end of World War II and the Nakba of 1948, have there been as many unknowns.
Unknown is the future of many regimes at a time in which the walls of fear and silence have collapsed. Unknown are the success possibilities of democracies that have emerged, democracies that are emerging or those even established. Unknown are the way expectations shifts and evolve in an era in which technology has rendered irrelevant the concepts of time and space. Unknown is the sustainability of some borders dating back to Sykes-Pico Pact. Unknown is how ISIS really emerged, and how it managed to threaten decade-old maps in weeks. Unknown is the future of the US-Iranian negotiations and relations. Unknown is the future of the Israeli-Palestinian peace prospects. Unknown is how the Arabs are going to face all this, if they have any plan at all.
And on top of all these political unknowns come the economic unknowns. Unknown is the oil price trajectory, the future Arab market share with shale technology and African discoveries. Unknown is the shape of the global financial architecture, and the future of banking in light of a shift in risks from micro to macro, and from credit to legal. Unknown is how the growth deceleration in China will play out, the future of the BRICS, and whether the South-South economic paradigm is still even possible. Unknown is the place of the Arab world and its stature in this new global economic architecture.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,
Throughout my 45-years career journey, I have been a banker, an academic, a banking regulator, then again a banker, a Finance Minister, a Prime Minister, and leader of the largest Parliamentary block in the Lebanese Parliament, and here is to you one important lesson that I have learned, and a principle that I have always applied: at times of high volatility, go back to basics. Sounds easy, but is actually very hard. Sounds simplistic, but it is actually highly effective.
We cannot determine the various variables at play, but we can clearly define our position that is based on our fundamental beliefs and values. We cannot control the twists and turns of events, but we can hold on to a path of principles and devise an action plan based on it. The principles have to be fixed but we can allow the tactics and tools to be variable.
Look around you in the Arab world and see how often have the discussions diverted from what really is important…how often have we had let the secondary divisions become more important than the primary ones...how often how we put priorities on the shelves and busied ourselves with the outdated, irrelevant, or the unproductive…If you see all this, then you realize how difficult it is actually to consistently go back to basics and hold on to fundamentals.
Today, I have listed most of the unknowns that come to mind in this difficult political and economic transition that the Arab nation is going through in the context of an economic and political transition that the world is going through. Now I would like to share with you the three fundamental principles that I sincerely think should be the guiding compass to a path of a joint Arab work agenda that should help the Arabs navigate through these volatile regional and global waters.
Principle 1: Until it is solved, we should never forget that the question of Palestine remains the source of most problems in our region. And therefore unlocking the door of peace will be equivalent to unlocking the real positive potential of this region and avoiding many of the future landmines.
If we look back to the Arab history since the Nakba of 1948; which in itself caused the emergence of military regimes in most of the region, regimes that built their legitimacy on the promises of winning back to the people their land and dignity, but ended up losing more of their lands and alienating their dignity; to the 1967 defeat and the loss of the rest of Palestine and parts of Egypt, and Syria; to the Lebanese civil war, the withdrawal of Egypt from the issues of the Arab world, the invasion of Kuwait and later the invasion of Iraq and the emergence of Iran as a major regional player, and its meddling in domestic Arab affairs which accelerated after the elimination of Iraq as a historic barrier between Mid-Asia and the Mediterranean. A chain of events that led us to the current state of instability and chaos, and to a path of internal strife, wasted resources and lost opportunities.
But the secondary and tertiary issues that branched out should not make us forget that the trunk of the tree has been and remains Palestine.
That is why, it is imperative that we go back to properly address and solve the mother of most problems in the Arab world, and the repeated failures over decades to tackle it, leading to the failure to tackle the deep economic, social and political and religious reforms that are badly needed.
Using the falsely pretext of Palestine and the conflict with Israel, a number of Arab regimes continued to ignore badly needed economic, social, religious and political reforms and continued unrestrained in abusing human rights. Emergency laws that were kept for decades and enhanced the iron fist of the regimes rather than implementing the universal human laws became the common modus operandi. Meanwhile, Israel kept ignoring international norms and UN resolutions and continued its policy of settlements and segregation and apartheid-like policies against the Palestinians.
From this historical view, I can confidently assert that in order to unlock the potential of the Arab world, which includes the success and sustainability of democracy and economic prosperity, it is imperative for unlocking to find a just and lasting solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict through the establishment of a viable unified and sovereign Palestinian State along the Arab peace initiative.
Healing this open wound is the right thing to do for the Palestinian people, who are still suffering from injustice and occupation for over 75 years now, and as well it is the right thing to do for the betterment of the future relations between the Arabs and Muslims on one side and the rest of the world on the other side, hence easing tensions not just between nations but also between cultures, which are a threat to everybody, East or West, Muslims or non-Muslims. If we want to be honest with ourselves and with the rest of the world, we have to admit that a good part of the historical misunderstanding between the Islamic world and the West has to do with the unresolved issue of Jerusalem. The higher tensions today in Jerusalem risk triggering a clash of cultures and not just a political divide, if the problems are left without comprehensive and fair and lasting solutions.
Another by-product of leaving the issue of Palestine unresolved is the rise of Iranian intervention, through the policies of exporting the revolution, and the concept of Wilayat Al-Fakih across national borders, thus fueling a dangerous Sunni-Shia divide. Iran’s claim of carrying the banner of Palestine has allowed it to meddle in the affairs of Iraq, Syria Lebanon, Yemen, and Bahrain. Iran’s support of the Syrian regime, suppressing a legitimate quest of the Syrian people for democracy and freedom, is happening directly and through Hezbollah’s armed personnel, all under the pretext of standing up to Israel.
Principle II
It touches on the issues of Sunni extremism, as well as on the issue of majorities and minorities in the region: Let me state clearly that only moderate Arabs and Muslims can ultimately defeat the forces of extremism in the region, which is their responsibility to achieve; and only the democratic civil state can be the real guarantor of minorities’ existence and rights, as well as to the other components of society.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,
Although ISIS only started to make international headlines around mid-last year, its rise has been years in the making, and it should not have taken anyone in the international community by surprise.
Three events that took place in 1978-1979 paved the way for the emergence of militant Islam: the invasion of Afghanistan, the Iranian revolution, and the withdrawal of Egypt from Arab affairs and marginalizing its classical and important role. The first gave rise to Al-Qaeda, which provided a model for the likes of ISIS, and the second gave rise to Hezbollah, which after the year 2000 changed the direction of its arms and pointed them against its fellow Lebanese, alienating the State and patronizing its institutions, and later intervening in Syria, Iraq, and beyond. Hezbollah also provided a model for several similar militias in Iraq, and Yemen. The third gave rise to a vacuum in the Middle East that was ultimately filled by Iran.
Recently, the West committed crucial political and security mistakes in Syria and Iraq, which allowed ISIS to leverage Sunni chagrins to promote its own agenda.
But as much as ISIS falsely claims to be championing Sunnis, it does not in any way represent Islam, and Muslims are the biggest losers of its atrocities. Islam is against forced conversion and there is nothing in Islam against blasphemy.
Still this does not deny the urgent need for religious reforms in our Arab and Islamic worlds to adapt with the modern changing world. Let us be honest, the Muslim clergy is not in general as open, liberal and progressive as Islam itself. So Muslims, in terms of thinkers, religious leaders and institutions have a lot of work to do in terms of reforming religious education and encouraging critical thinking, especially after decades in which religious institutions in the Arab world were blind followers and in some aspects collaborators with the despotic regimes.
Leaders of the Western world have also some real work to do and it is high time that world leaders not just claim to cherish democracy, freedom, justice, moderation, tolerance, and respect of human rights while merely condemning the acts of dictators and doing little to empower the moderate forces in the region. The international community has an interest and responsibility to help the peoples of the region shake off the feelings of hopelessness and despair, and to contribute to their own efforts in building more democratic and prosperous societies. The increasingly widespread prejudice and stereotyping of Arabs and Muslims as violent or inherently hostile to the west, only feed into their pervasive sense of humiliation and anger.
In addition to Palestine, the other place to start is Syria, where the West must offer genuine quantum support for the moderate, civil forces of opposition. Had this been done early, maybe no ISIS would have ever come to existence. The same thing applies to the policies of the West in Iraq. It is in the interest of the West that moderation wins this battle. The disturbing criminal heinous acts that took place in Paris last week are a reminder that nobody is safe from fanatics who are multiplying because of the continued open war in Syria. Furthermore the monstrous attacks on coffee shops in the North of Lebanon last week are also reminder that misery and deprivation, among other things, are fertile ground for indoctrinating idle and unemployed young men with closed horizons. In this context, the state of despair of the millions of Syrian refugees in Lebanon but also in other places, risks, without a near solution in Syria in increasing the threat of extremism and violence.
Unfortunately, some in the West have suggested that keeping al-Assad might even be desirable, believing he is the lesser of two evils, and ignoring that Tyranny and Extremism are two sides of the same coin.
This is not only preposterous, but also immoral and completely ignores the Syrian conflict’s role in ISIS’s emergence in the first place. Indeed, my country has firsthand experience of having to confront extremism stoked by al-Assad’s regime – back in 2007, when I was Prime Minister, we discovered that an extremist group called Fateh al Islam which look control of Nahr-Al-Barid Camp had strong links to Syrian intelligence.
Experience has shown us that dictatorships are not a sustainable guarantor of peace for minorities. Instead, only the emergence of a democratic and modern civil state, where all individuals are treated equally, regardless of religion or ethnic grouping, can bring lasting peace and stability. Furthermore, democracy and majority rule should not be used as an excuse to marginalize a minority.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,
The political challenges we face as Arabs should not mask the many economic challenges awaiting us around the corner. The most pressing risk is the high unemployment especially amongst the youth which is a source of concern in most Arab countries. The challenge is the need to create 50 million new jobs over the coming decade to absorb the new comers to the Arab labor market. The declining oil price poses a challenge to the economy, and especially the private sector in the Arab world and comes on top of other political and security challenges. However, lower oil proceeds should be an incentive to fast track the necessary reforms at the institutional, judicial, administrative and overall business climate to empower the Arab private sector but also attract foreign direct investment and diversify the national economies.
But let us be honest: no individual Arab economy can by itself resolve all the challenges it is facing, and therefore it is high time to move along a vision of Arab economic integration, which brings me to the third principle.
Principle III: The need to develop a vision of Arab economic integration that is based on shared interests and objectives and not on empty slogans and fake banners. This is the only way to guarantee in the long run Arab security at all levels: political security, economic security, energy security, social security and food security.
This Arab security should not be construed to be against anybody in the region or in the world. It is rather an area of joint cooperation among Arab countries to improve the prospects of promoting moderation and stability on the one hand while fostering development and prosperity in the Arab world on the other hand. It is also a vehicle for Arabs to have equivalent relations with their neighbors and with the rest of the world that are based on mutual respect and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs.
The economic arguments for intra-regional Arab economic cooperation are many. Resources of production are scattered along the Arab world. Some countries are rich in capital but poor in labor. The opposite is true in others. Some countries are rich in land but short of skills. Others have great consumption needs, but are short of land. There is plenty of room for complementarity that is based on bridging several misalignments amongst various Arab countries: the gap between supply and demand, the gap in the unit labor cost, and the gap in total factor productivity.
Three areas come to mind where work can start immediately: electricity, transport, and agriculture. It is not acceptable to have blackouts and electricity shortages in a region that is abundant in both sources of energy: fuel and sunshine. It is not acceptable to be so dependent on food imports and have one of the highest food import-dependency per capita in the world, when vast arable areas in our Arab world remain underutilized. And it is not acceptable to connect in Paris or Istanbul when traveling from one Arab capital to another. In fact many Arab capitals are not even linked by roads or rails.
Economic integration has worked wonders, created millions of jobs and lifted millions out of poverty in regions that have much less in common than the Arab countries. But the trick is that they started in small well-defined initiatives and grew according to joint interests, while in the Arab case they have always started with big ambitious announcements that remained ink on paper.
Dear Friends,
In the coming period in which the global political and economic architecture is being redrawn, we should never lose focus on what really matters. We should not shy away from planning and achieving our long-term interests as Arabs, and we should never lose faith that better days are yet to come and work hard on instilling hope in the future generation through the implementation of concrete steps on the roads of integration and development.
I would like to thank you all for your attendance today. I would like to thank Gulf Intelligence for bringing us together, dear friends, your Excellency Minister Mazrouei for the honor of your presence. And I wish you all a productive and successful